Okay, I was wrong about the Election

I made a bold prediction last spring. At the time hype was abound that Justin Trudeau would call an election. I thought it was all bluster by the media trying to drum up a story. Check out the link and listen to the episode of The 905er.

Clearly, I my analysis wasn’t sound. Well, let me clarify, its wasn’t shared by the Trudeau government. I think it’s safe to say, no one wants this election, save for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals.

However, as anyone who’s run a campaign or covered one can tell you, once it starts, what was important at the start usually isn’t by the end of it. We are here now. The parties have been planning for this for some time now, regardless of what they have been saying for the last year.

COVID-19 is still the dominant issue though. What was supposed to be Trudeau’s failure is now going to be his triumph. With enough doses in the country for all eligible Canadians, I suspect each campaign stop will have candidates of all parties need to declare their vaccination status. Reluctance to announce it at the mic will be an albatross around the necks of the party leaders.

The real test will be who can present a path out of the pandemic. As the reality, that COVID-19 will probably not be disappearing anytime soon, the question of how do we live with it is the ballot box question. Which may require a retooling of how our economy functions. Things like Universal Basic Income, and tighter coordination between provinces on trade and commerce might be the focus this election. Climate Change will be front and centre as well. Especially after this summer’s wild weather resulting in an unprecedented heat wave on the west coast and the destruction of a small town due to wild fires.

While Trudeau is leading in the polls by a sizeable advantage at the moment, I will not declare him a shoe in. We can all remember the blackface scandal that emerged early in the last election, and his lustre isn’t as bright as it was in his heyday. However, Erin O’Toole and Jagmeet Singh haven’t exactly wowed anyone either with their performances to date. Relying on trying to drum up scandals against the Liberals that have since fizzled out, rather than provide a good plan of governance. Things can change though. An election is a lifetime in politics. We shall see what happens.

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